I hope so too. I’ve either built or modified every PC I’ve ever owned. I think if desktops do endure it will (perversely) be because of the PC gaming and its sadomasochistist relationship with Windows. (For example Windows OS’s always seem to require just a touch more than a given machine has to give, leaving gamers the single option of hardware upgrades.) So there may be reason to hope.
In fact, I think desktops have a better shot than CDs. Certainly in my part of the world–Toronto Canada–record shops have gone extinct. One owner I got to know over the years–in a dark moment–told me he thinks that in the near future music would be purely digital and available as files only. And while he continues enjoying the boom in vinyl sales he worries that vinyl too will fade. He claims it’s only a matter of time before hipsters figure out what a pain in the butt vinyl is.
In sum I think what might kill desktops is that currently most new PC users come from smart phone users and so have minimal expectations of or exposure to the vast capabilities of modern computer systems. Smart phones and social media seem to have created a particularly distracted and peevish pool of potential PC users with blurry expectations.
I’m a total agnostic when it comes to predicting the future of–well–anything. We humans are phenomenally poor at prediction, except in highly structured paradigms such as particle experiments or gravitational systems.
In the 70’s I was told that soon we would all be living in geodesic domes and cruising around in hover crafts. But, then I was also being told my country (Canada) would be half glaciated by now. But this, of course, would be the least of my concerns since there would be no food no fuel and no order.
Things that appear to be linear trends are often merely the up side of a sine wave.
Vinyl records are a perfect example. If you asked a music collector a decade after the introduction of digital music whether they would prefer going back to vinyl, they would want to know if you were joking. I’ve collected music for 50 years and I would never have predicted it! (Converting vinyl to CDs for me was like hearing many old albums for the first time!)
Yes that is true, desktops are on a bit of a comeback and I just cannot understand why people would give them up and use a laptop for home use. I had my current computer made for me. I went into a computer shop and asked the tech to make it and told her what I wanted and she built it for me. The only thing she had to work out was an appropriate mother board . I of course put in my own operating system. She now offers all her computers with Linux for anyone who asks for it but I am sure most Linux users install their own systems. LPs have made a comeback but they are very expensive now. I buy CDs which i think are much better than that downloaded music.
I have my rigs built to my requirements, with large monitor. But I still have a lappy on a laptop cooler, next to the monitor, why; my first computer was a lappy, and still like their cosy feel.
Use a Dell 12" Ultrabook, (when out and about) its roughly the same size and weight of a tablet, or half the weight of my Lenovo N200, bought back in 2008.
My own children, nieces and nephews all seem to prefer mobile phone and have a tablet to back up their data through wifi to the cloud. Not my idea of secure data storage.
I personally wouldn’t have given it up, but due to a lack of space now I have had to do so. The system I built is now in use at our son’s garage as he has more space for it there. So perhaps it is not choice, but necessity that makes them do so.
There are two reasons I prefer a desktop computer to a laptop, and they reside at the ends of my arms. My old farmer’s hands are too big and clumsy to modify a laptop. Add that to the ease of identifying, locating, and installing desktop components and the desktop’s future is secure. Of course, I miss out on the joys of bloatware, too.
That makes sense. I have a friend in South Africa who lives in a one bedroom apartment but she is lucky that her employer lets her use her work computer for personal emails as long as she does so when she is not busy but at home she has to use a ipad. She is also an avid book collector (like me) and has these stacked around the apartment. I am lucky in that I live on my own (with four cats) and I have a special room with floor to ceiling built in book cases and plenty of room for my computer. Nearly 2000 books in there too as I am an avid reader and books dominate most of my emails to my South Africian friend.
I had to down size to a laptop when we moved at retirement to a small apartment. Just no room now for a desktop system, But 3 of my old systems are still in use. And I keep them updated for those who have them. So still do the odd bit of Desktop work from time to time.
I’ll be in the market for a new Laptop soon though as this one is getting a bit old now. about 7 years old. And beginning to show it’s age. But it’s been a real trooper with linux and hate to give it up have thought about just upgrading it a bit and may still do that. Just haven’t made up my mind yet.
In any event my grand kids all have tablets and phones and they could care less for Desktops or laptops, except the one granddaughter that is into photography she has one of my Desktops.
So don’t see them going completely away just yet but I’m sure the market will try to dictate that.
Problem 1, Microsoft controls most hardware at a base level.
Problem 2, linux needs to unite over formats, deb,rpm etc and gnome kde incompatibility to make it easier for developers.
Problem 3, need better financial model to reward developers and enable them to make a living.
People just want to get stuff done and have the freedom to customise their desktop easily.
You make some really valid points. If only #2 happened, and all of linux used the same formats for packages, I’d be really inspired to try some different distros.
In the end I truly believe that the very nature of LINUX, having many choices, the ability to change, and all the different flavors is exactly what will make LINUX the top dog. Not to mention, honestly LINUX already is the top dog. The world runs on LINUX, the average person just has no idea. Modems, Routers, World Wide servers, and I am sure we can continue to add to that list for hours…they all run LINUX. Windows and Mac are simply the child safe versions of a computer. Just as Android and iOS are. Sure, lots of people get chromebooks right now because they are cheap but they lose their luster soon as the user figures out it is merely an actor pretending to be a real OS. Meanwhile, I don’t care if LINUX is popular among everyday people or not. To be a LINUX user today kinda makes one feel as if they are in on a huge secret everyone else is missing. I love it! =)
