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Here is a prediction that you may not like or agree with

  1. Large distros like the Debian and Redhat families will fail to manage the increasing number and complexity of packages and will resort to one of snap or flatpak
  2. Smaller independent distros like Void and Solus will cope by being more selective in which packages they maintain. They will become speciality Linuxes
  3. Bleeding edge rolling release distros like Arch and Gentoo will do what they have always done … pass the problem of package compatabilities onto the user. Gentoo might even thrive because its Portage system is superior
  4. The BSD distros FreeBSD, NetBSD,… will replace Linux distros for Desktop users because they have a better managment model which is capable of putting together a distro that works.

Anyone have a different vision?